| Week 1 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice [Beitrag #2312] |
Thu, 06 December 2018 03:16 |
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Who to play or bench in the NFC North In fantasy football Youth Kenny Clark Jersey , Week 1 is a difficult week to forecast. Of course, there are the ones you should consistently start unless they're on a bye, but there are always those who are still a mystery. New offenses, new coaches, and new weapons can raise a lot of question marks, especially in Week 1. These teams could end up being anything!Before the season starts, we're going to try our best to rationalize who to sit and who to start during the first week in the NFC North. We have one NFC North rivalry matchup, while Minnesota and Detroit have difficult games both inside and outside of the conference.StartsAaron Rodgers, QBBears @ PackersThis is a given, but needs to be acknowledged in light of the Bears' acquisition of Khalil Mack. It's a matchup that we could be talking about for years now. Mack is an all-world defensive player and it really perplexes me that Jon Gruden traded him out of Oakland. Seriously, if I'm power ranking defensive players it'd go: Aaron Donald, Mack, and Jalen Ramsey, in that order. But Mack doesn't play defensive back, defensive tackle, or inside linebacker. What I'm saying is that the Bears didn't fix their entire defense. While Mack may be able to elevate them Cheap Josh Jackson Jersey , there are still other areas of opportunity for Rodgers to exploit them. And Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears during his career to the tune of 42 touchdowns and just nine interceptions in 19 games.Adam Thielen, WR49ers @ VikingsDon't be worried about starting Thielen against the Niners. Richard Sherman is the new top guy in San Francisco, but he's coming off an Achilles injury. Those are tough to come back from even with today's advancements. The backpedaling and the need to plant and change direction for a defensive back at age 30 is paramount to success. The Niners were still 27th in DVOA against WR1's last year so that's a long way to climb even with Sherman.Matthew Stafford, QBJets @ LionsIn case you waited for a deep round quarterback selection, I hope you went with Stafford. The Jets shelled out good money for Trumaine Johnson this offseason, but he can't cover Marvin Jones Jr., Golden Tate and Kenny Golladay all at once. Morris Claiborne is still the CB2 for the Jets, but he's still not good. At home last season, Stafford threw 17 touchdowns and only three picks last season. There could be some early season rust, but being at home makes it easy for Stafford.SitsJamaal Williams, RBThis is the hill I've been willing to die on all offseason. Williams is fine, but I'm fading this option in Week 1. I think the Packers would be best served getting Rodgers acquainted/reacquainted with his pass catchers. While Williams may find the end zone, he only had three games over 100 all-purpose yards last season with one of those being 100 yards on the ground. I'm not expecting over four yards per carry.Allen Robinson II, WRBears @ PackersYou probably drafted Robinson to be a flex or WR2 which is great, but you're counting on a lot to click right away with the Bears offense. Not only did the Bears add a ton of weapons, but they're instituting a new offense with Mitchell Trubisky at the helm. Robinson also hasn't played in a year after an ACL tear in week one of 2017. The Packers have a lot to be left desired with their secondary as well Youth Geronimo Allison Jersey , but I'd want to start more of a sure thing.The Packers run too often on 2nd- or 3rd-and-long The Green Bay Packers beat the Buffalo Bills badly on Sunday, but no one was happy with the offense and with good reason. Six of those 22 points came on long field goals, and McCarthy seemed to settle for another long field goal attempt on the first drive, though Jamaal Williams was unable to gain sufficient yardage on a third-down play to try it.McCarthy settles a lot, and that's becoming big problem because it costs the team possessions. There are two major philosophies about picking up first downs. The first, older philosophy captures the NFL standard for most of the 1980s and 90s, which holds that first and second downs are to be used to make 3rd down easier.A few four-yards runs on the early downs will give the team flexibility to either run or pass on 3rd and short, making for an easy conversion. The new philosophy holds that offenses are now so good (and defenses so restrained) that it's more efficient to give yourself as many opportunities as possible to gain ten yards on an individual passing play, and that the vast majority of the time, any quarterback will complete a 10-yard pass before they are forced to punt.While you do need to run sometimes, just to prove that you might, the latter philosophy is far closer to optimal. We know that, on first down, a successful play must pick up at least 4 yards, and in reality that number is probably closer to 5. Your subsequent 2nd and 3rd down plays are really only successful if they pick up the first down, which means that if your first down play fails and leaves you with six yards to go or more http://www.packerscheapshoponline.com/cheap-authentic-geroni mo-allison-jersey , running is almost always a bad idea because runs don't generally pick up big yardage. Smart teams know this.For instance, let's look at the Rams, who are currently the cream of the crop in terms of football smarts. On 2nd or 3rd down, with 6 yards or more to go, and when the game is within one score, the Rams have passed 87% of the time. They have only run in this situation four times all season. It's just not something they do. In the aggregate, their plays have been successful 52% of the time, while their passing plays have been successful 60% of the time. The Packers, on the other hand, still strive for balance in these scenarios. They have passed only 68% of the time and run 32% of the time. Those runs have only succeeded 1/3 of the time, and overall in these situations, the Packers only succeed 38% of the time. We tend to focus on 3rd down efficiency, but the Packers are basically pissing away plays and drives every time they do this. Despite the fact that the Packers have an all-time great quarterback, only seven teams pass less than the Packers in this situation, which is insane. On their first drive against the Bills, the Packers faced 2nd and 10 from the Buffalo 40-yard line. Either McCarthy or Rodgers called a run to Jamaal Williams Corey Linsley Jersey , the worst Packer runner, that lost a yard. Incredibly, on 3rd and 11, they went back to the same well, and Williams was stoned for no gain. Even if Williams hadn't been completely stuffed, the best case scenario for those play calls was a slightly shorter but still long field goal attempt, which is hardly an ideal outcome. It is these pointless plays and drives that seems designed specifically to not score, which cause the offense such problems. The Packers then did this again in the 3rd quarter when up 19-0. The team faced 3rd and 10 and called a run to Ty Montgomery, which was stuffed for a loss of one. The Packers were forced to punt from their own 18, and the defense was fortunate to preserve the shutout.The fact of the matter is that smart teams don't operate this way. They pass more frequently and with more success when a first down is still in doubt. The actual plays that were called against the Bills were not half bad, and the second drive of the game -- which resulted in a touchdown -- was a thing of beauty. But the problems with the offense are deeper than individual play design. They show a fundamental lack of football understanding. McCarthy's focus on execution has always been about the trees, but much of the rest of the NFL now runs a hyper-efficient forest, and Mike just doesn't see it.
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